The College Football Playoff selection committee’s first top 25 rankings release is Tuesday, Nov. 4, but with data points continuing to expand nearing the midseason point, we have a pretty good idea of how that poll would look if the season ended today.
The 12-team bracket includes five auto-bids and seven at-large selections, but the major change this season is the move to a straight-seeding model designed to reward teams for quality wins and removes the previous rule that forced the top four seeds to all be conference champions.
Selection committee protocol has not changed with strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes being the primary differentiators when grading.
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Brad Crawford
Here’s a look at how the selection committee’s top 25 would look after the Week 6 action.
No team in the country has three top 25 wins up to this point except the Hurricanes, which would put Miami at No. 1 in the CFP Rankings. While playoff seeding is the last thing on Mario Cristobal’s mind at this point, there’s a chance his team could go through the rest of the season without playing another ranked opponent until the ACC Championship Game. The bulk of the Hurricanes’ schedule is behind them, outside of a potentially tricky matchup at SMU on Nov. 1.
The Buckeyes toppled preseason No. 1 Texas in the opener, a win that may not look as sexy as the season matures considering the Longhorns fell outside of the AP poll this week. There are more opportunities for Ryan Day’s group to impress, however. The defending national champions travel to ranked Illinois this weekend and battle Michigan in Ann Arbor in the regular-season finale. The home bout with Penn State in a few weeks lost much of its luster after the Nittany Lions tanked at UCLA.
With ranked victories over Michigan and Auburn already, the Sooners look the part with an elite defense and rising star John Mateer at quarterback. His injury heading into Saturday’s SEC tilt with Texas is notable. Let’s say Oklahoma loses to the Longhorns without Mateer but wins the rest of its games upon his return to the lineup. The selection committee wouldn’t necessarily dock Oklahoma for the loss since the injury factor is taken in account during the final sorting process.
Assuming the selection committee would reward the Red Raiders for being the Big 12’s best team through six weeks, Texas Tech would be deserving of top-four billing with a first-round bye. The Red Raiders humiliated the only ranked opponent they’ve faced on the road — Utah — and has cruised to four others wins with one of college football’s top offenses.
Oregon has one of college football’s best wins this season at Penn State in double overtime before that victory lost some of its cool points over the weekend. The Ducks have a chance to further make an impression on the committee Saturday night at home against unbeaten Indiana, one of three Big Ten teams we have in our current playoff projection. If the Ducks can get to Indianapolis unbeaten in December with seven more wins for the second straight season, they should expect a first-round bye as a top-four seed. However, if the season ended today, that would be no guarantee.
The comeback win at Notre Dame last month was Texas A&M’s signature victory thus far, and the Aggies have taken out two SEC opponents since with dominant defensive performances. The remaining schedule’s setting up well for the Aggies, who only have two more matchups against teams currently ranked inside the AP poll (LSU and Missouri). Unfortunately, both come away from Kyle Field.
The only unblemished SEC team with three league wins at this point, the Rebels’ path to a playoff berth is clear for Lane Kiffin: win at least three of the final five contests against league competition. Oklahoma and Georgia are the only ranked opponents the rest of the way, and Ole Miss gets an open date in November before playing the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. An appearance in Atlanta is a real possibility for a team performing at a heightened confidence level following their win over LSU.
Winners of four straight since the loss at Florida State, the Crimson Tide still have to play four nationally ranked teams down the stretch, continuing this treacherous schedule with Missouri this weekend. A win over the Tigers would match Miami for the most victories against ranked competition and would put Alabama above one of these SEC unbeatens currently situated higher in the projected selection committee rankings given the strength of schedule.
9. Indiana (5-0)
The Hoosiers beat the only ranked team they’ve played by 50 points a few weeks ago, but another test comes this weekend at Oregon. Beating the Ducks would not only be Curt Cignetti’s second of the season against a top 10 team but also would push Indiana to co-frontrunner status in the Big Ten alongside Ohio State. Then, the Hoosiers start eyeing a first-round bye instead of a home game in December.
10. Georgia (4-1)
The overtime victory in Knoxville will come in handy later in the season if the Bulldogs keep winning since the three-point home loss to Alabama. However, if the selection committee tossed out its final top 12 here in early October, Georgia would likely be on the road in the first round. Saturday’s trip to Auburn has potential upset written all over it. Then, Georgia hosts unbeaten Ole Miss the following week. What happens the next two weekends may determine if Kirby Smart’s season is a success or not in 2025.
The Vols lost to Georgia … who lost to Alabama. Following? That’s why these three SEC teams are currently situated where they are in our projected selection committee rankings if the bracket came out today. Tennessee doesn’t have a win over a ranked opponent yet, but those opportunities are coming against Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Like most in the top half of the SEC, the Vols control their own playoff destiny still in Week 7.
By virtue of the Group of Five receiving an auto-bid to the playoff for its highest-rated team, the Bulls would grab that designation nearing midseason. USF has notable wins over Boise State and Florida with its lone loss coming to unbeaten Miami. The Bulls are a narrow road underdog this week at North Texas, a pivotal showdown at the top of the American.
13. Georgia Tech (5-0)
14. Missouri (5-0)
15. LSU (4-1)
16. BYU (5-0)
17. Illinois (5-1)
18. Michigan (4-1)
19. Virginia (5-1)
20. Vanderbilt (5-1)
21. Notre Dame (3-2)
22. Iowa State (5-1)
23. Memphis (6-0)
24. Arizona State (4-1)
25. Florida State (3-2)
Projected first-round CFP games
- No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Alabama
- No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Ole Miss
- No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Texas A&M
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
The Crimson Tide’s strength of schedule surpasses Indiana’s slate, and Alabama has one more ranked win than the Hoosiers currently. So, despite being beaten, we’re slotting Indiana behind Alabama for the final coveted first-round home game. If the current projection of five SEC teams in the playoff comes to fruition, we’re going to see possible repeat matchups in the first round.
