Jolyon Palmer thinks Oscar Piastri will “realistically” have to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to stand a chance of sealing the 2025 F1 title, but his initial priority comes sooner.
The 24-year-old finds himself playing the role of the outside contender for the title with one round of the 2025 F1 season remaining. Piastri trails his McLaren teammate Lando Norris by 16 points and Red Bull rival Max Verstappen by four points, with just 25 available on Sunday.
Piastri only has two scenarios available that would see him win the F1 drivers’ championship at Yas Marina. The Australian has to win the Abu Dhabi GP and hope Norris is no higher than P6, or he has to secure P2 with Norris no higher than P10 and Verstappen no higher than P4.
Verstappen also only has three scenarios available to him in the 28-year-old’s quest to win a fifth title in succession. Norris is the clear title favourite heading to Abu Dhabi as he only has to finish on the podium, and Palmer does not rule out McLaren using team orders on Piastri.
Oscar Piastri must fight for Abu Dhabi Grand Prix pole before he can think about the 2025 F1 title
Palmer is confident that the McLaren MCL39 will allow Piastri and Norris to fight at the front in the title-deciding season finale. He feels their car will suit the variety of corners at the Yas Marina Circuit and should also not overwork the Pirelli tyres in all of the high-traction areas.
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But before Piastri can think about putting Norris and Verstappen under pressure for the title in Sunday’s Abu Dhabi GP, the Melbourne native has to at least fight for pole position during qualifying this Saturday. Piastri qualified P3 for the Abu Dhabi GP in 2023 and P2 in 2024.
“Regardless of what happens to his rivals, Oscar must finish in the top two,” Palmer told the official F1 website. “But, realistically, he’ll probably need to win the race this weekend.
“The good news for him is he seemed to have his mojo back in Qatar. Lots of small things have counted against Oscar in the recent run of races. But finally, on a high grip circuit he enjoys, we saw the best of him, and he looked like the Oscar of pre-summer.”
Palmer added: “Oscar first of all needs to put together a pole position attempt, before he can realistically start to think about applying championship pressures on his teammate.”
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Norris took pole for the 2024 Abu Dhabi GP with a phenomenal Q3 lap, as he denied Piastri P1 on the grid by 0.209s. The Briton also ended Verstappen’s dominance in qualifying at Yas Marina, as the Dutchman had secured pole and won the race in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Verstappen only qualified P5 for the 2024 Abu Dhabi GP, yet he started it in P4, right behind Piastri in P2, as Nico Hulkenberg had a grid penalty. The rivals then came to blows at Turn 1, as Verstappen tagged Piastri into a spin after trying an overtake down his inside at the start.
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Piastri’s 2024 Abu Dhabi GP weekend also started on the bench, as McLaren replaced him in FP1 with ex-test driver Ryo Hirakawa (who will replace Esteban Ocon at Haas for FP1 at the 2025 round). McLaren will also bench Piastri for FP1 in 2025, with Pato O’Ward stepping in.
McLaren need to replace Piastri with O’Ward during FP1 at the 2025 Abu Dhabi GP to fulfil their rookie requirement for the season in his car. But Palmer does not expect Piastri to be at a disadvantage, as FP1 at Yas Marina is always the least representative practice session.
Palmer added: “It’s also worth noting that he will sit out FP1. But historically, that has made very little difference. The two times Lando Norris has missed FP1 this year have arguably been his two strongest races yet, so Oscar will have to take confidence from that.
“And FP1 in Abu Dhabi is the least representative session, in low grip in the heat of the day. So, it’s not as disastrous as it might seem, providing he has a trouble-free FP2.”
McLaren have already fulfilled the required two rookie runnings in an FP1 session for Norris’ car. Alex Dunne replaced Norris in the first practice session at the Austrian Grand Prix, while O’Ward stood in at the Mexico City GP. Dunne also replaced Piastri for FP1 at the Italian GP.
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