After all of the whining and complaining, we’re here. It’s the first round of the College Football Playoff, and let’s put it this way – it can’t be any worse than last year’s CFP first round, can it?
Alabama at Oklahoma and Miami at Texas A&M are far better matchups than anything we got in the first season of the 12-team College Football Playoff, and now they need to come through.
There are only four College Football Playoff First Round games to choose from, so there’s little margin for error when it comes to finding five picks.
These are the big ones, so it’s time a make a call, along with a bonus pick.
Record So Far: 78-72
@PeteFiutak
College Football Playoff Top ATS Picks: First Round Games
Sep 20, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) reacts during the first half against the Auburn Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis vs NC State
Line: NC State
Pick: NC State -3.5
– NC State at Memphis Preview & Prediction
No, it’s not a College Football Playoff pick, but it’s the Friday afternoon game before Alabama and Oklahoma go at it, and for me, this is a tone-setter for the rest of the regular bowl season.
It doesn’t always work out, but in the new era of bowl games, there are three key elements. 1. Is the Power program together enough to be close to what it was in the regular season against a 2. Group of Five team, and 3. is either side’s coaching staff gutted?
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For the most part, NC State hasn’t been hit that bad – although not having RB Hollywood Smothers hurts. It’s a better team than Memphis, anyway,
The Tigers are a bit banged up, head coach Ryan Silverfield is off to Arkansas, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey should have a day.
The 3.5 is too enticing.
Now, on to our regularly scheduled program.
5. Miami at Texas A&M
Line: Point Total 48.5
Pick: Over
– Miami at Texas A&M Preview & Prediction
I’m not deeply in love with this call, but I have to address all four first round CFP games. My Miami win-outright belief isn’t quite strong enough.
Both defenses are fantastic, and this will take a little while to get going, but both offenses should open it up a bit in the second half. Neither defense will be able to totally shut down the other’s offense.
No, this shouldn’t be a firefight, and it’ll be tight, but both attacks should hit the mid-20s.
4. Alabama at Oklahoma
Nov 29, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) warms up before the game against the Louisiana State Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.© Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
Line: Oklahoma -1.5
Pick: Oklahoma
– Alabama at Oklahoma Preview & Prediction
Full disclosure, I like this way more than the 4 slot, but there’s one glaring issue with going all in on the Sooners.
If you want to play the “because it’s Alabama” card, I won’t argue.
I can’t get past one big problem, though – the Crimson Tide might not be that good.
It hasn’t played a strong game since the middle of October against a WAY overloved Tennessee, and at this point, the September win over Georgia appears to be as much of an aberration as the 31-17 loss at Florida State.
Oklahoma’s rested defense, and a strong day from quarterback John Mateer will be enough to get the home win. The 1.5 is immaterial.
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3. James Madison at Oregon
Line: Point Total 47.5
Pick: Over
– James Madison at Oregon Preview & Prediction
I’m not ready to say that Oregon is this year’s CFP Notre Dame, but …
Only Wisconsin and Indiana were able to hold the Ducks to fewer than 41 points in Autzen. The former was mostly because of a driving rainstorm, and the latter is because the Hoosiers were just that good – and the game still got to 50 points.
Why isn’t this higher? Oregon might win 41-3. Or, maybe the James Madison defense that has yet to allow more than 28 all year is just that good. (I explain a bit more in a second.)
2. Tulane at Ole Miss
Line: Ole Miss -17.5
Pick: Ole Miss
– Tulane at Ole Miss Preview & Prediction
This is here because it feels like it should.
However, I’m a little afraid that Tulane will be plucky, Ole Miss won’t be quite as sharp without Lane Kiffin around, and …
It might take a little while to get there, but at some point in the late third quarter, the Rebels will go full throttle just enough to pull away.
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1. James Madison at Oregon
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looks to pass as the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Nov. 14, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.© Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Line: Oregon -20.5
Pick: Oregon
– James Madison at Oregon Preview & Prediction
I can’t talk as much garbage about this game as I have and not go with it.
If I’m being honest, I would love nothing more than for James Madison to be outstanding and make this a brawl up until the final moments – and for America to glance away from Bears-Packers for ten minutes to check this out.
It would be a wonderful thing for the sport, the College Football Playoff, and Group of Five programs everywhere if this is a thriller.
Unfortunately, I think we’re about to get an Oregon team that’s still embarrassed that it looked like it didn’t belong in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State in last year’s CFP.
It’s why I didn’t put the point total higher – Oregon might roll, and the total might not get to 47.5 (even though I actually think the Ducks will hit the total all by themselves).
This isn’t some September regular-season warm-up game. I’ll be stunned if we don’t get an Oregon team that looks anything less than national title good.
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Related: College Football Playoff Expert Picks for Every CFP Game
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
